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Entering the world’s most-visited museum in broad daylight, grabbing eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into Paris traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who study patterns in international art crime, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a string of quick-hit thefts centered more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is better protected.”

A spate of violent retail store thefts mean that many stores have strengthened their security in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the globe have reduced spending on law enforcement and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how at risk our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves left by the street on their way out – has inevitably been compared with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the same museum, carried out by the worker the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent theft of valuables from a German institution worth over €113m, the theft of a £4.75m gold toilet from a UK landmark the same year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from a European museum or even a spate of thefts of collector items from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” explained Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, experts say, the thieves would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to trade something as immediately identifiable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the cultural authorities has published photos of the items. Even a individual buyer or an sales venue would want to see paperwork establishing legal possession before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known art pieces and would remain quiet out of embarrassment. Now, as art thefts are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a plan to keep it in hiding, maybe by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the danger of an partner telling the police to collect a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the theft had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary methods give gems a larger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the proof of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the items to locations with diamond expertise like a country, India or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the gems,” said Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the museum, with a leaked official review expected to be published soon criticising “significant” and “ongoing” slow progress in modernizing equipment and observing that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But specialists say displaying precious items in older structures with a steady stream of guests comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to protect,” said an art crime professor. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for thieves to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid protective measures for buildings should be designed “like a fortress”, said a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel intruders.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a broken glass in immediately, but historic institutions may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the day as crowds walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was common of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards change their shifts and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more quickly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new methods with which to circumvent protections. In the city, the thieves reached the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and cut through a window with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in France about the 232-year-old building had primarily centered on crowd control in recent years, and not as much on protection.

The museum has an in-house brigade of about fifty full-time emergency personnel, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the collection from fires and flooding. “There isn't a quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and currently the nation simply has no resources.”