Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
